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Order |
Monday, 31 July 2000 |
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Forecasting is difficult, especially when it's about the future.
I received that bit of wisdom
years ago
from a Simon Goede, my manager in those days.
It sounds a bit vapid, but it does have a nucleus of truth. Making predictions is hard, exactly because the future is yet unknown. Every week I try to forecast the Amsterdam Stock Exchange Index (AEX). Most of the time it's quite successful, like last week. And sometimes I'm completely wrong, so no guarantees for this or any other future weeks.
It's kind of a sport for me to discover such a deviating order in what looked like chaotic series. Past and future share one and the same order. Recognise the order and you'll be able to make a well founded prediction for the future. Somewhere during the past weeks I tried to download a bit of free software. That was not easy. In the contrerary, it was quite disappointing. It kept my repaired laptop busy for hours. When will this download end? Yes, look and see: a future that is hard to predict. The download screen includes a countdown, with an estimation of the remaining download time: 3 hours and 56 minutes. The series of successive measurements, see textfile, didn't give me much hope. The progress was bad and the estimations proved to be unreliable. In the beginning the remaining time even went up quickly to 4:25. It fluctuated around 5 and a half for some time, and decreased after that. It seemed that there was very little structure. Order was hard to find. Hm, but this might hide a deviating order too?
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June 2000
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· Uncertain
· Cold
· Pencil
· Order
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