|SUMit Roster Software > Nut's Weekly > July 2000 > Order||Nederlands · Search...|
|Monday, 31 July 2000||May 2000 June 2000 Green Uncertain Cold Pencil August 2000 September 2000|
Forecasting is difficult, especially when it's about the future.
I received that bit of wisdom
from a Simon Goede, my manager in those days.
It sounds a bit vapid, but it does have a nucleus of truth. Making predictions is hard, exactly because the future is yet unknown. Every week I try to forecast the Amsterdam Stock Exchange Index (AEX). Most of the time it's quite successful, like last week. And sometimes I'm completely wrong, so no guarantees for this or any other future weeks.
For the AEX I use a snake diagram, for which I was inspired by diagrams from the (www.studyweb.com/...). Inside chaos there is a hidden order. So, chaos is not chaotic. It is a deviating order. The investment snake obviously goes rond in circles, counter clock wise. Have a look for yourself and discover patterns in your own stock portfolio.
It's kind of a sport for me to discover such a deviating order in what looked like chaotic series. Past and future share one and the same order. Recognise the order and you'll be able to make a well founded prediction for the future.
Somewhere during the past weeks I tried to download a bit of free software. That was not easy. In the contrerary, it was quite disappointing. It kept my repaired laptop busy for hours. When will this download end? Yes, look and see: a future that is hard to predict.
The download screen includes a countdown, with an estimation of the remaining download time: 3 hours and 56 minutes. The series of successive measurements, see textfile, didn't give me much hope. The progress was bad and the estimations proved to be unreliable. In the beginning the remaining time even went up quickly to 4:25. It fluctuated around 5 and a half for some time, and decreased after that.
It seemed that there was very little structure. Order was hard to find. Hm, but this might hide a deviating order too?
· August 2000
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